Franklin & Marshall College (9/30-10/5, registered voters incl. leaners):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 48
Chris Hackett (R): 33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Carney is not out of the woods yet, but this is still a good showing for a freshman Dem in an R+8 district. It’s also similar to other recent polls we’ve seen of this race: Momentum Analysis had Carney up by 50-36, and Lycoming College pegged the race at 46-36.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
I’m more inclined to believe this race is somewhere between the mid to high single-digits.
He will likely be drawn a better district that includes liberal leaning Centre county now in PA-05.